It seems that in most Presidential election cycles, there is some kind of buzz about one candidate or another who electrifies a small yet vocal minority of the electorate, whether they be left, right, or the fanatic fringe. The one thing each of these candidates has in common is that they don’t have any more chance of actually becoming the nominee than Rosie O’Donnell has of becoming the spokesperson for the National Association of Psychiatric Medicine.

Another thing they have in common is that they hold ideals that are easily spoon fed to frustrated pseudo-intellectuals who are somehow delusional about some level of their patriotism - that is to say, they think that they know better than the average person in the majority what is “best” for this Country, and that their perspective is more in tune with their perceptions of what patriotism means.

That being said, I thought I would illustrate some of the factors that are present in these movements, and how these factors contribute to the ‘false appearance’ of viability candidate like Ron Paul.

Fringe Ideals

At the core of the candidacy of people like Ron Paul and Ralph Nader are a group of people who have idealistic points of view on Government and policies. Of course these ideals often speak to the Independent and Libertarian minds among us, but these ideals also speak to the “pseudo” Democrat or Republican as well. These Republicans or Democrats who fall off away from the normal party platform or candidates have likely had a hard time holding on for a long time. Probably the only reason they call themselves Democrats or Republicans is that there is usually some other logistical reason, such as primary voting requirements or the desire to be included in other processes (like caucus, etc…) that keeps them “in” the party, or perhaps a long standing position on one issue that they identify with, like defense, abortion, 2nd amendment, etc…

In the case of Paul, this is where the “Republican” side of the fringe comes from. They are those who have long believed they are traditional conservatives or Republicans, but who are now realizing that they are really on the fringe of the party on some key issues. While a majority of the support for Paul comes from the Libertarian, left, or Independents, those who say “I am a Republican, and I support Ron Paul” are suddenly finding, via the pulse of the polls of what mainstream Republicans are saying, that they are probably needing to rethink whether or not they truly are Republicans. Why?

The separation of traditional Republicans from the Paul “republicans” are core issues such as immigration, borders, and the war on terror/US Troop support. These issues fall under the umbrella “National Security”, and any attempt to dilute the efforts in those areas are considered by staunch Conservatives and Republicans as fundamentally flawed, if not outright dangerous.

At this time, it is nearly impossible to call oneself a Republican and hold any position whatsoever that undermines the war on terror or the troops. Paul, citing the Constitution and founding fathers often, has electrified this part of the electorate into thinking that their position of “cut and run” is a patriotic one that would proudly be held by our powdered wig wearing patriots of the past. I contest that the likes of Andrew Jackson and James Madison would strongly protest their claim.

Fanatic Energy

The second visible element of the Paul-ite type fringe movement is the energy of supporters is far higher than the general electorate. Otherwise known as “fanatic”.

These people are highly charged and motivated. They have a passion that would make most of the rest of the electorate appear lazy and disinterested. This passion is driven by a belief that:

1. they are finally being heard
2. a belief that they can make a difference
3. a pumped up illusion that there actually is a meaningful and substantial movement

They feel as though they are part of something, and that synergy of ‘group’ feeds the machine. The trouble is, to win a nomination, you don’t need a machine, you need an immense factory. And, you also need to be espousing beliefs which are in line with your party constituency, which Paul is not.Paul supporters show up in moderate numbers, and are very vocal. They are perhaps more insistent that they get their signs in the way of cameras; and they make sure that when Paul speaks at debates they respond with as much gusto as possible.

This gives the illusion of higher degrees of support than poll numbers and reality can justify. While it appears impressive on the surface, this movement is nothing more than an inverted iceberg. Due to the fact that they are very active and coordinated, 90% of the body of the movement is visible all of the time. Dog barks, can’t bite.

Such fanaticism is also exemplified in how the Paul-ites attack those who oppose them. CNN ran a poll in which the results were obviously skewed in favor of Ron Paul to such a degree as to make it clear that a frantic coordinated geek effort was underway to slam the site with votes for Paul. After CNN Managing Editor Allen Wastler openly chided the supporters for skewing the poll intent and results, apparently CNN received an immense flood of emails and other responses criticizing his claims, after which, he apologized publicly to the supporters.

This kind of internet hype is generated by overzealous link geeks that surf and click and surf and email and create the illusion of impressive numbers. The reason why it is initially effective is, one such as Wastler cannot ascertain the true depth of a movement nationally by calculations derived from mass emailing and mass polling efforts of a fringe entity. So Wastler buckled due to ignorance.

CNN’s rival and dominant King of cable based political news did not buckle. Recently, Fox News determined that Paul’s (and Duncan Hunter’s) involvement in a round table forum was not possible due to the format and time constraints. In order to maintain a meaningful top level discussion amongst top tier candidates, Fox determined that neither Hunter nor Paul had enough national clout to merit being involved. Paul supporters organized a formal protest/boycott of Fox News. Fox stood by its decision, and Paul ran a kind of infomercial show in lieu of appearing on the Fox broadcast.

While the effect of such efforts (protests/boycotts) are questionable at best, it is clear that this more ‘militant’ attitude is similar to that which we find with NARAL and PETA activists from the left. In the case of a campaign, this is nothing more than an irritated knee jerk reaction of the supporters to any effort to undermine their efforts when news agencies either report reality (polls) or state opinions which might be hurtful to their “man”. An example of that would be Joe Scarborough’s statement on Paul, “Everybody’s thought that he’s been crazy for a while…”, which drew fire from Paul supporter. Most normal candidate supporter “pools” would get irritated with such comments, but Paul supporters become rabid.

Paul supporters angrily respond to any reporting of ‘reality’ (which is usually negative) concerning their candidate. In the article “The Illusion of Ron Paul”, I clearly point out why Paul has no chance to win. While most people understand this already, the Paul-ites have a hard time digesting and accepting the truth that lies in the numbers.

Web Campaigning- Organizing the Freaks

The internet increasingly is involved in campaigns of all types, parties, and levels. Fundraising, petition signing, poll gathering, and the organization of rallies and other local events are the meat and potatoes of a campaign’s success. If they are the meat and potatoes, the internet is the microwave oven.

Nearly any candidate can now have the power to create grassroots organizations with incredible ease and low costs. This is a good thing. But it does have the potential to help create the illusion of validity of a candidate, as well.

It has been shown with other candidates (Howard Dean for example) that a solid web campaign machine can bring in great amounts of cash. Ron Paul has performed similarly, in that he and his campaign have had significant success raising large amounts of cash for his pursuit of the nomination. However, the mistake that the fringe makes is believing that “cash” in large amounts means “support” in the way of voters nationally. It does NOT.

In the same way that Joe Smith can open an internet store and appear to be a big mover and shaker with flashy ads and ease of access from across the country, the average or below average candidate can open up “shop” and try to give the appearance that he can compete with the “big boys”- even though he operates out of his garage.

Again, money is not votes.

I addition to this, one can not know for sure where the Ron Paul money is coming from. As I stated in my earlier article, “Ron Paul x George Soros = Ross Perot”, much of the Paul money could be coming from the left, in order to make a stooge independent candidate out of Paul and spoil the election for the Right.

The Ugly Truth

For Paul supporters, the truth is just a few weeks away. Even if Paul were to triple his support, he would not rise above 5th place nationally. (Source: Real Clear Politics polling 1/4/08-1/10-08) While this is a bitter pill to swallow, here is one that is even more bitter… for the rest of us conservatives… it might not be the last we see of him.

Paul running on an Independent or Libertarian ticket would be a disaster for the Republicans.